• Medicine
  • Spirituality
  • Astronomy
  • Sociology
  • Technology
  • History
  • Open Access
  • News

Predicting The Correct Infection Function Of An Epidemic Model

Predicting infection function of epidemic model is essential in studying infectious diseases. The conventional differential equation model of infectious illness is based on known disease features and has long been investigated and predicted epidemic dynamics. Nonlinear infection functions are used in the majority of epidemic models. Nonlinearity, on the other hand, emerges swiftly from the numerous illness and vulnerability term combinations. To deal with nonlinearity's challenges, researchers typically employ the bifurcation theory of nonlinear equations to produce estimates, which they then refine using expert knowledge.

Despite advances in nonlinear epidemic model analysis, determining the optimal infection function remains technically infeasible. The functions are related to the number of vulnerable and infected people and include environmental and behavioural variables. The Holling type function is mathematically applied to the infection function to account for such behaviour. Any mistake in selecting the infection function directly impacts the precision of model prediction. However, depending on existing data is insufficient; technical expertise of the environment, human behaviour, and virus strain features are also required. As a result, improved procedures are needed.

Machine learning and similar neural-network models have substantially improved the predictability of nonlinear functions in the modern industry. A neural network is built layer by layer after the neuromorphology of the human brain, with input layers, output layers, neurons, and activation functions (synapses) at each layer. Most research has been on linear hybrid models, with only a few studies focusing on nonlinear issues. A team of researchers led by Chentong Li and Changsheng Zhou from Guangdong Academy of Science and Guangzhou University in China studied the power of a hybrid nonlinear epidemic neural network in predicting the correct infection function of an epidemic model. To assure model trainability, they integrated the bifurcation theory of the nonlinear differential model with the mean-squared error loss and designed a unique loss function. They used a model using accurate COVID-19 data to determine the changing law of its infectivity.

Hybrid Epidemic Model

They employed six requirements (the fundamental features fulfilled by most epidemic models) to forecast the correct infection function based on the unique circumstances of ordinary differential equations and the basic properties of epidemic models. The Euler and Runge–Kutta techniques are the most successful and extensively utilised for solving ordinary differential equations. The Runge–Kutta technique, which stems from the integral form of the ordinary differential equation, is used to compute the numerical solution at each time point. The Euler approach is less precise and stems from the discrete form of differentiation. 's work, Introduction to the Basic Properties of an Epidemic Model and the Forward Bifurcation of an Epidemic System, explained the vanishing gradient requirements that result in the hybrid model's untrainability. They trained a hybrid model using produced data using the typical fixed-step numerical approach, and the numerical results confirm its accuracy.

Model Application To COVID-19 Real Data

Using U.S. COVID-19 actual data of two phases from June 16 to October 31, 2021, and December 12, 2021, to February 11, 2022, the researchers used the fitted models to forecast ground-truth changes in historical COVID-19 infectivity. The significant strains during COVID-19 transmission were delta and omicron, as indicated by the two peaks. During the first period, infectivity dropped and then stabilized. In the second phase, infectivity rose at first and then remained steady. However, when the fitted results of the two infection functions are compared.

The study revealed that the infection function changed faster in the second period than it did in the first. Similarly, the infection rate was more significant in the second period than the first. The drop in the first period might be attributed to an increase in vaccinated persons. In contrast, the growth in the second period may be attributed to the introduction of the omicron strain and a fall in temperature. It was proved through this practical application example that the technique could comprehend otherwise concealed information in restricted real-world data, which not only broadens application breadth but also considerably boosts model flexibility. The suggested technique provides computational support and a theoretical foundation for future research on infectious illnesses.


The trials demonstrated that the model could match the data quite well. The study supplied the parameters required to complete the problems and a specific implementation approach and its published computer code, which may be utilised in similar hybrid-model applications. The researchers reported the method's application using genuine COVID-19 data from the United States. The findings demonstrated that the suggested model identifies the hidden information behind restricted accurate data, increasing its relevance to infectious disease models. This paper sheds fresh light on the capabilities of hybrid neural networks in dealing with nonlinear situations using nonlinear ordinary differential equations.

About The Authors

Suleman Shah

Suleman Shah - Suleman Shah is a researcher and freelance writer. As a researcher, he has worked with MNS University of Agriculture, Multan (Pakistan) and Texas A & M University (USA). He regularly writes science articles and blogs for science news website immersse.com and open access publishers OA Publishing London and Scientific Times. He loves to keep himself updated on scientific developments and convert these developments into everyday language to update the readers about the developments in the scientific era. His primary research focus is Plant sciences, and he contributed to this field by publishing his research in scientific journals and presenting his work at many Conferences. Shah graduated from the University of Agriculture Faisalabad (Pakistan) and started his professional carrier with Jaffer Agro Services and later with the Agriculture Department of the Government of Pakistan. His research interest compelled and attracted him to proceed with his carrier in Plant sciences research. So, he started his Ph.D. in Soil Science at MNS University of Agriculture Multan (Pakistan). Later, he started working as a visiting scholar with Texas A&M University (USA). Shah’s experience with big Open Excess publishers like Springers, Frontiers, MDPI, etc., testified to his belief in Open Access as a barrier-removing mechanism between researchers and the readers of their research. Shah believes that Open Access is revolutionizing the publication process and benefitting research in all fields.

Recent Articles

  • Stone Age Humans Conducted Surgical Amputation, A New Study Finds Evidence

    Stone Age Humans Conducted Surgical Amputation, A New Study Finds Evidence

    Scientific investigation in Borneo has unearthed the world's first documented instance that stone age humans conducted surgical amputation. This discovery represents a significant achievement in the annals of human prehistory.

  • 180 Tips - Best Website For Football Prediction And Tips

    180 Tips - Best Website For Football Prediction And Tips

    How can you beat the best odds at the most well-known online bookmakers when betting on soccer matches? Today's 180 Tips forecasts from Betwinner360 include a record of winning methods. 180 tips provides in-depth research of more than 50 different football leagues, betting tactics organized by market, and expert predictions for each match.

  • Virgo And Sagittarius Compatibility - Great Conversations

    Virgo And Sagittarius Compatibility - Great Conversations

    Virgo and Sagittarius's compatibility is such that they are attracted to one another right away. They base their first interactions on how well they get along in conversation, which comes naturally to them both. These changeable signs will enjoy every minute of talking to each other to death! They engage in frenzied arguments, lengthy philosophical discussions, and fast banter.

  • Pisces And Aquarius Compatibility - Creative Brilliance

    Pisces And Aquarius Compatibility - Creative Brilliance

    Pisces and Aquarius compatibility is such that these two are masters of manifestation while working together. When Aquarians let go of their rigid views, they become natural alchemists who are capable of creating with their creative brilliance. Because of their more flexible and understanding nature, Pisces may assist them in becoming less stuck and releasing their boundless creative potential.

  • Pisces And Scorpio Compatibility - Best Match For Love

    Pisces And Scorpio Compatibility - Best Match For Love

    Pisces and Scorpio compatibility is that they have an innate knowledge of one another, even though they are frequently mysterious to others. These two are irresistibly attracted to each other because they feel like they understand each other but don't say it out loud. They seem to have a psychic connection because they can easily tune into one another's brains.

  • A Massive 7.6 Earthquake Rocks Papua New Guinea

    A Massive 7.6 Earthquake Rocks Papua New Guinea

    On Sunday, a massive 7.6 earthquake rocks Papua New Guinea, causing landslides, cracking roads, and damaging houses. It is currently unknown how extensive the damage is; however, there is debris scattered over the highways and fissures popping up in the roads. According to the United States Geological Survey, the epicenter of the earthquake was located at a depth of 90 kilometers, or around 56 miles, and was close to the town of Kainantu, which has a population of approximately 8,500 people.

  • Most Frequent Angel Numbers You Keep Seeing Is Luck Or Unlucky

    Most Frequent Angel Numbers You Keep Seeing Is Luck Or Unlucky

    The most frequent angel numbers you keep seeing are distinct from other forms of esoterica in that they have no connection to the date that you were born. In numerology, every number has a meaning. Nevertheless, certain number sequences are more prevalent than others. Because all of us have come across them, three-digit angel numbers are widespread.

  • Pisces And Leo Compatibility Is Quite Strong

    Pisces And Leo Compatibility Is Quite Strong

    Leo will inevitably rule Pisces in some aspect of life, Pisces and Leo compatibility whether it is in terms of work, friendship, or love. However, as Leos are kind and loving rulers who have no malice in their hearts, and since the fish don't mind being ruled if it's done with warmth and love, this isn't always a terrible thing.

  • Angel Number 6666 Meaning - A Sign That Your Heart Is Full Of Love

    Angel Number 6666 Meaning - A Sign That Your Heart Is Full Of Love

    If you keep seeing the same number in your life, it's not a coincidence. The angels use Angel Number 6666 meaning to send you an important message. If you can clearly interpret the message of angel number 6666, it will serve you well. This number appears in your life directly from the divine realm.